By 2020, more than half the nation’s adult population will have diabetes or the condition that precedes it, which will create more than $3 trillion in health-care expenses, a new report says.

El Paso is likely to be hit harder than many other areas, said Mickey Molina, an El Paso Diabetes Association board member.

“Because of our demographics, the fact (El Paso) is primarily Hispanic, I think the numbers here will be worse,” Molina said. the incidence of diabetes among Hispanics is nearly double that of non-Hispanic whites, according to the American Diabetes Association. the causes are not entirely clear, Molina said, but probably are related to diet.

The report, created by UnitedHealth Group’s Center for Health Reform and Modernization, estimates that 52 percent of the adult population will have diabetes or prediabetes in 10 years. Treating that population will cost an estimated $3.35 trillion, the report says.

“Our new research shows there is a diabetic time bomb ticking in America, but fortunately, there are practical steps that can be taken now to defuse it,” Simon Stevens, the group’s executive vice president, said in a statement. “Making a major impact on the prediabetes and diabetes epidemic will require health plans to engage consumers in new ways, while working to scale nationally some of the most promising preventive care models.”

Prevention and control of the disease could cut costs by as much as $250 billion over the decade, the report says.

“The only way to curtail diabetes is to prevent it,” Molina said.

About 27 million U.S. residents now have diabetes, the report states. Nearly a quarter of them are unaware that they have the disease, according to the report.

It estimates that an additional 67 million have prediabetes. About 60 million of them, it says, are not aware of their condition, which has few symptoms.

Prediabetes is characterized by elevated glucose levels that are not high enough for a diabetes diagnosis. Recent research, according to the American Diabetes Association, has shown that the condition can damage the heart and circulatory system.

El Paso County had 74 cases of diabetes per 1,000 people in 2005, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Diabetes Surveillance system.

Nationally, there were 53 cases per 1,000 people. Texas, in that same year, had the highest diabetes rate of any Southwest border state.

Molina said he believes those numbers understate the problem.

Many people are in denial when it comes to diabetes, said Molina who estimates about a quarter of El Pasoans have some form of the disease or its precursor.

“It’s really a terrible disease because it comes in the back door,” said Molina, who has been diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes.

“People don’t think about it until they get the blurry vision or the cramps” that can be symptoms of diabetes.

Once you are diagnosed, there is no cure, Molina said.

Prevention includes exercise, weight loss in some cases and, above all, a healthful diet.

“The diabetes diet is the diet everybody else should be eating, which is a balanced diet,” Molina said. “You have to make a change in lifestyle.”

Molina also believes medical costs are higher than estimated.

“Nobody ever died of diabetes,” Molina said. “But you have the heart problems, the kidney problems, the eye problems.”

In 2009, a person diagnosed with diabetes required a total of about $11,700 in health care annually, the report says.

The remainder of the population required an average of $4,400 a year, it states. And people who suffered complications from diabetes required an average of $20,700 annually, it says.

“So many people are in denial, and they think once they get it, they can take a pill and go on their merry way,” Molina said.

“It doesn’t work that way.”

Chris Roberts may be reached at ; 546-6136.